Space weather

Solar wind speed Solar wind magnetic fields Noon 10.7cm radio flux
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Update

Update
ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2024-09-12 11.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 1128 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-09-12 10.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 1010 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2024-09-12 10.05 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 12 0931 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0943 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0951 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.3
Location: S16E90
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-09-12 09.56 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 12 0939 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0940 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0941 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 207 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-09-12 09.45 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 0939 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-09-12 07.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 0754 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2024-09-12 07.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0755 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-09-12 05.11 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 12 0431 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0431 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0431 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 230 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 207 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-09-12 04.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0419 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: 2024-09-12 04.01 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Sep 12 0350 UTC
Deviation: 32 nT
Station: CNB

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-09-12 03.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 0357 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-09-12 03.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0355 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: 2024-09-12 03.15 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 12 0332 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 12 0412 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Sep 12 0254 UTC

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-09-12 00.38 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 11 2349 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 12 0012 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 12 0032 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.0
Location: S14W75
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-09-12 00.16 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 12 0011 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-09-11 16.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 11 1642 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 11 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issued: 2024-09-10 17.37 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 11: G1 (Minor) Sep 12: G1 (Minor) Sep 13: G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: 2024-09-10 11.54 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 09 1640 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 09 2250 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 10 0555 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 34 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-09-10 00.41 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 09 2353 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-09-10 00.03 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 09 2345 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 408 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: 2024-09-09 19.43 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 574
Valid From: 2024 Sep 09 0750 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: 2024-09-09 17.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 09 1640 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: 2024-09-09 07.49 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 09 0750 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 09 2000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-09-09 05.54 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 09 0510 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 668 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issued: 2024-09-08 07.53 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 09: None (Below G1) Sep 10: G2 (Moderate) Sep 11: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-09-08 01.29 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 08 0057 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 924 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-09-04 17.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4683
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1055 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 04 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 2024-09-04 15.18 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 04 1455 UTC
Station: GOES16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: 2024-09-04 11.00 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Sep 04 1030 UTC
Deviation: 40 nT
Station: BOU

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-09-04 10.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1043 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-09-04 10.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 04 1039 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-09-04 10.39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1055 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: 2024-09-04 10.17 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1030 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1100 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Sep 04 0940 UTC

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-09-04 03.04 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 04 0250 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 04 0251 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 04 0251 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 250 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 242 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: 2024-09-03 12.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 03 1255 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-09-03 08.42 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 03 0753 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 547 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-09-01 17.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4681
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 02 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-09-01 14.41 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 01 1141 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 01 1322 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 01 1436 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.5
Location: S21E90
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-09-01 13.03 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 01 1300 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-09-01 11.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4680
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 01 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-31 23.21 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4679
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 01 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-31 20.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4678
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 31 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-31 17.16 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 31 1715 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-31 16.15 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 31 1612 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 31 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-31 14.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4677
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 31 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-31 09.14 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 31 0900 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-31 08.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4676
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 31 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-31 08.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1918
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 2335 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 31 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-30 23.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 30 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-30 23.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 2335 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 31 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-30 23.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4675
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 31 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-30 13.21 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4674
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 30 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-08-30 08.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 30 0852 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-30 08.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 30 0849 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 30 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2024-08-28 21.13 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 29: G1 (Minor) Aug 30: None (Below G1) Aug 31: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Lingering CME effects are likely to cause geomagnetic storming during the early hours of 29 Aug.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-28 07.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1916
Valid From: 2024 Aug 28 0133 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 28 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-28 07.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4672
Valid From: 2024 Aug 27 2323 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 28 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-28 07.03 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 28 0659 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2024-08-28 03.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 28 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2024-08-28 02.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 28 0223 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 28 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-28 02.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 28 0212 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-28 01.33 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 28 0133 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 28 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-08-28 00.04 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 27 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-27 23.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 27 2323 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 28 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-08-25 00.19 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 25 0000 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 360 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-23 20.27 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 23 2008 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Aug 23 2012 UTC
End Time: 2024 Aug 23 2018 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Location: S27E22
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-23 20.20 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 23 2012 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-23 06.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 23 0619 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 23 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-08-23 03.54 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 23 0343 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 347 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-08-23 02.20 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 23 0119 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 236 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-22 02.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 22 0246 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 22 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-21 22.30 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 21 2159 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Aug 21 2208 UTC
End Time: 2024 Aug 21 2217 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Location: S03E31
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-21 22.11 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 21 2207 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-21 05.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4668
Valid From: 2024 Aug 21 0147 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 21 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-21 01.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 21 0147 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 21 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-18 17.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4666
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1354 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 18 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CANCEL WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2024-08-18 13.46 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 1009
Original Issue Time: 2024 Aug 15 1358 UTC

Comment: Current conditions no longer warrent this Watch.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-17 23.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4665
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1354 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 18 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-17 23.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1914
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1600 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Aug 18 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-17 21.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 17 2147 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-17 21.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 17 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: 2024-08-17 17.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 17 1746 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: 2024-08-17 17.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1744 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 17 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2024-08-17 17.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 17 1712 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2024-08-17 16.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1644 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-08-17 16.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 17 1616 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-17 16.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1600 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-08-17 15.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 17 1555 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-17 13.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 17 1354 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2024-08-15 13.58 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 16: None (Below G1) Aug 17: None (Below G1) Aug 18: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-14 23.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 14 2312 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-14 16.07 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 14 1539 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Aug 14 1549 UTC
End Time: 2024 Aug 14 1557 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.3
Location: S09E76
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-14 15.50 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 14 1548 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-08-14 07.30 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 14 0649 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 516 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2024-08-14 07.16 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 14 0600 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Aug 14 0640 UTC
End Time: 2024 Aug 14 0708 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.0
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N15E01
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-08-14 07.13 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 14 0649 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 223 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-08-14 07.09 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 14 0641 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Aug 14 0650 UTC
End Time: 2024 Aug 14 0655 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 500 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 260 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-08-14 07.04 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Aug 14 0639 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-08-14 06.30 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 14 0626 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-08-13 23.30 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 13 2330 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-08-13 22.26 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 13 2226 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-08-13 22.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Aug 13 2211 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Aug 14 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sunspot number Sunspot area 10E-6 New regions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Flares
X-ray Optical
C M X S 1 2 3
2024-08-13 260 199 2410 0 * 10 3 0 27 2 0 0
2024-08-14 248 194 2250 1 * 3 3 1 27 0 1 0
2024-08-15 227 164 1420 1 * 7 1 0 22 0 1 0
2024-08-16 225 169 1220 2 * 8 1 0 12 1 0 0
2024-08-17 230 170 1440 2 * 1 4 0 13 2 0 0
2024-08-18 231 170 1640 2 * 5 5 0 12 0 0 0
2024-08-19 239 213 2240 2 * 10 2 0 9 1 0 0
2024-08-20 244 200 2010 0 * 3 2 0 17 0 0 0
2024-08-21 239 176 1730 1 * 5 2 0 9 0 1 0
2024-08-22 231 175 1690 2 * 15 1 0 17 2 0 0
2024-08-23 242 180 1730 0 * 11 8 0 20 3 0 0
2024-08-24 232 172 1780 0 * 11 5 0 23 3 1 0
2024-08-25 233 178 1640 1 * 14 0 0 12 0 0 0
2024-08-26 232 202 1950 2 * 8 1 0 5 0 0 0
2024-08-27 221 170 1870 0 * 7 1 0 3 0 0 0
2024-08-28 212 163 1520 2 * 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-08-29 204 124 1530 0 * 6 0 0 4 0 0 0
2024-08-30 214 143 1310 2 * 9 2 0 4 1 0 0
2024-08-31 232 180 1640 3 * 6 4 0 6 0 0 0
2024-09-01 226 156 1560 0 * 7 4 0 8 0 0 0
2024-09-02 238 200 1500 2 * 6 5 0 3 0 0 0
2024-09-03 242 133 1320 0 * 9 2 0 7 1 0 0
2024-09-04 262 151 1490 1 * 10 6 0 10 1 0 0
2024-09-05 241 167 1490 0 * 16 6 0 5 0 0 0
2024-09-06 249 188 1280 2 * 13 0 0 3 1 0 0
2024-09-07 222 179 1340 3 * 7 1 0 11 2 0 0
2024-09-08 228 176 1095 2 * 3 1 0 4 1 0 0
2024-09-09 215 213 1025 1 * 0 7 0 0 0 1 0
2024-09-10 205 147 1010 0 * 4 2 0 4 2 0 0
2024-09-11 207 179 1150 2 * 6 6 0 11 1 1 0
Average/Total 231 174 1576 36 225 85 1 308 24 6 0

Summary graph

Flares

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



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Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
2024-08-14 12 4. 33 3. 00 2.
2024-08-15 6 2. 33 1. 00 0.
2024-08-16 8 2. 67 2. 00 2.
2024-08-17 31 1. 33 1. 00 1.
2024-08-18 13 2. 33 3. 00 2.
2024-08-19 10 1. 33 1. 67 1.
2024-08-20 7 1. 33 2. 00 2.
2024-08-21 8 3. 33 1. 67 2.
2024-08-22 10 3. 33 2. 67 2.
2024-08-23 7 2. 33 1. 67 2.
2024-08-24 10 1. 67 2. 00 3.
2024-08-25 7 2. 33 2. 33 2.
2024-08-26 5 2. 00 1. 00 1.
2024-08-27 11 1. 00 1. 00 2.
2024-08-28 26 5. 67 4. 00 5.
2024-08-29 5 2. 00 1. 33 1.
2024-08-30 23 1. 67 1. 33 3.
2024-08-31 26 4. 33 4. 00 4.
2024-09-01 16 3. 67 3. 67 2.
2024-09-02 8 2. 33 2. 00 2.
2024-09-03 7 1. 67 2. 00 2.
2024-09-04 13 1. 33 1. 00 2.
2024-09-05 7 2. 00 2. 33 1.
2024-09-06 8 1. 33 0. 67 2.
2024-09-07 7 2. 67 2. 00 1.
2024-09-08 9 2. 67 2. 33 1.
2024-09-09 9 2. 67 1. 67 2.
2024-09-10 7 2. 67 2. 00 1.
2024-09-11 8 1. 33 1. 33 1.
2024-09-12 25 2. 00 4. 00 5.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
2024-08-14 11 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 3
2024-08-15 6 2 1 0 2 3 1 2 2
2024-08-16 11 3 2 2 3 4 2 2 1
2024-08-17 24 1 0 1 3 3 6 4 5
2024-08-18 15 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 3
2024-08-19 11 1 1 1 3 4 2 3 3
2024-08-20 9 1 2 2 2 4 2 2 2
2024-08-21 8 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 1
2024-08-22 11 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2
2024-08-23 8 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2
2024-08-24 12 1 2 3 3 3 4 2 2
2024-08-25 8 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 1
2024-08-26 4 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 0
2024-08-27 11 0 1 3 2 3 3 3 3
2024-08-28 30 5 3 5 3 3 6 3 2
2024-08-29 5 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1
2024-08-30 16 2 1 3 3 4 4 3 3
2024-08-31 19 4 3 4 2 3 4 3 3
2024-09-01 16 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 2
2024-09-02 7 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1
2024-09-03 10 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
2024-09-04 16 1 1 2 4 5 4 2 2
2024-09-05 8 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2
2024-09-06 8 1 0 2 3 3 2 2 2
2024-09-07 9 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1
2024-09-08 19 2 2 1 2 3 3 6 3
2024-09-09 9 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3
2024-09-10 7 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 1
2024-09-11 8 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2
2024-09-12 1 3 4 5

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
2024-08-14 16 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 2
2024-08-15 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2
2024-08-16 11 2 2 3 4 3 2 1 1
2024-08-17 30 2 1 1 3 3 7 4 4
2024-08-18 11 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
2024-08-19 11 1 2 0 1 5 3 2 2
2024-08-20 15 1 3 3 4 4 3 2 2
2024-08-21 13 2 2 3 4 4 3 1 1
2024-08-22 14 2 4 4 3 3 2 1 2
2024-08-23 10 2 2 4 1 4 0 2 1
2024-08-24 26 1 2 5 6 3 5 2 1
2024-08-25 7 2 2 4 2 0 1 1 0
2024-08-26 9 1 1 1 4 4 2 0 0
2024-08-27 8 0 0 1 2 4 3 1 2
2024-08-28 35 5 5 6 4 5 3 1 2
2024-08-29 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
2024-08-30 25 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 3
2024-08-31 41 3 4 7 2 4 6 3 3
2024-09-01 27 4 4 3 4 5 5 3 2
2024-09-02 12 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 0
2024-09-03 8 1 2 3 4 2 1 1 0
2024-09-04 9 0 1 1 3 4 3 1 1
2024-09-05 4 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2
2024-09-06 7 1 0 2 2 4 1 1 1
2024-09-07 6 2 2 0 1 3 1 2 1
2024-09-08 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1
2024-09-09 6 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2
2024-09-10 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1
2024-09-11 4 1 1 0 1 2 2 2 1
2024-09-12 2 4 5 5

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Data source: NOAA, Wikipedia

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